About Me

I was on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Division beginning in 1994, after being an assistant and (tenured) associate professor at Penn State University. I retired from the Fed on May 1, 2021 and am joining Fudan University in Shanghai as Professor in the Fanhai International School of Finance.

Email: johnrogers@fudan.edu.cn or aegjrogers@gmail.com

Google scholar: Here

CV: Here

Research summary: Here


New Research

Pandemics: ASSA presentation January 2021 IWFSAS presentation August 2021 Paper

U.S.-China Hostility: Slides Paper Vox China

The Effect of the China Connect: Paper Shanghai Forum slides

Chinese Fund Managers: Paper

What is Certain about Uncertainty? Paper

U.S. Monetary Policy and International Mutual Fund Investment: Paper

Forecasting Performance of Uncertainty Measures: Slides

Macro Transmission of (Un-)Predictable Uncertainty Shocks: Slides Paper

Monetary Policy's Role in Firm Financing Conditions and Real Activity: Abstract



Data

Husted-Rogers-Sun (JME, Nov. 2020) U.S. monetary policy uncertainty MPU index Paper

Bu-Rogers-Wu (JME, March 2021) Fed monetary policy shock series Paper

Rogers-Scotti-Wright (JMCB, May 2018) Fed monetary policy shock series Paper


Research

My research focuses on empirical monetary economics, international finance, and macroeconomics. My research interests can be summarized as comprising six broad, and somewhat overlapping, themes:

1. Border Effects, including "How Wide is the Border?" with Charles Engel, American Economic Review 86, 1112-25 (December 1996);

2. Economic Spillovers Across Countries, including “The Effect of the China Connect”, with Chang Ma and Sili Zhou (see FEDS working paper and VoxChina, 2019);

3. Monetary Policy, including "Monetary Policy’s Role in Exchange Rate Behavior," with Jon Faust, Journal of Monetary Economics 50:7, 1403-1424 (October 2003) and "A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks", with Chunya Bu and Wenbin Wu, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 118, pp. 331-349 (March 2021);

4. Exchange Rates, including "The High Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macro Announcements," with Jon Faust, Shing-Yi Wang and Jonathan Wright, Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 1051-1068 (May 2007) and "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We’ve Really Made," with Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright, Journal of International Economics 60, 35-60 (May 2003);

5. Current Accounts, including "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present-Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?", with Shaghil Ahmed, Journal of Monetary Economics 36, 351-74 (October 1995) and "The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output," with Charles Engel Journal of Monetary Economics 53, 1063-1093 (July 2006);

6. Uncertainty, Pandemics, and Tensions Between the U.S. and China, including “Monetary Policy Uncertainty,” with Lucas Husted and Bo Sun; Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 115, pp. 20-36 (Nov. 2020), “Macroeconomic Transmission of (Un-)Predictable Uncertainty Shocks”, with Jose Ferrer and Jiawen Xu, “What is Certain about Uncertainty?” with Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, et. al. (2020), “Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery”, with Chang Ma and Sili Zhou, and finally “U.S.-China Hostiltiy”, with Bo Sun and Chris Webster, where we construct a novel index of hostility between the U.S. and China, and examine its economic transmission to the aggregate economy and firms.


Teaching

I have taught graduate and undergraduate courses at several universities, including University of Virginia (as a PhD student), University of Kentucky, Penn State, Johns Hopkins, Georgetown University, Fudan University, and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.